A significant new escalation has occurred in the Russia–Ukraine war.
What happened: Ukraine carried out a large drone-and-missile attack on Novorossiysk, Russia’s principal Black Sea naval base and one of its most important export ports. Reuters reports that the August 12 strike damaged several Russian warships—including two frigates, a corvette and a landing ship—and also hit major grain-terminal infrastructure.
Human cost: Russian authorities said three civilians were killed, including an 8-year-old child, while residential buildings and other infrastructure were damaged. Russia retaliated with further attacks on Ukraine, and an overnight Russian strike on August 13 set infrastructure around Ukraine’s major Danube port of Izmail ablaze.
Why it matters: Novorossiysk has become increasingly important to Moscow because much of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was relocated there after repeated Ukrainian attacks on occupied Crimea. A successful attack on multiple warships there demonstrates that Ukraine can now threaten Russian naval assets even at what was intended to be a safer rear base.
There is also a wider humanitarian dimension. Ukrainian attacks forced a major Novorossiysk grain terminal to suspend operations; Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter. Russia, meanwhile, has repeatedly attacked Ukrainian Black Sea and Danube export infrastructure. That raises the risk that the military contest in the Black Sea increasingly disrupts food supply routes relied upon well beyond Europe.
What changed: Both sides have conducted long-range strikes for years, but the combination of multiple Russian warships reportedly damaged, civilian deaths, disruption of major grain infrastructure and immediate Russian strikes against a Ukrainian export port represents a notable intensification of the struggle for control of the Black Sea.
